The Fantasy Geek

Thirteen days of hype. 56 injury updates on Dwight Freeney’s ankle. 123 athletes plugging some kind of sponsored event in radio interviews. Let’s play some football already! This Sunday, the New Orleans Saints will play the Indianapolis Colts in Super Bowl XLIV. It’s the biggest gambling day of the year. Now, I only partake in friendly gentlemen’s bets, but those visiting the lovely state of Nevada have hundreds of wagering choices. Heads or tails? Who will score first? Will there be more than 3.5 field goals made? Will Dave Thomas catch more than 2.5 passes? Then there are the cross-sport wagers, like “Will the Colts score more points than Dwight Howard’s total points and rebounds?” I’ve even heard that you can bet on the flavor of Gatorade that gets dumped on the winning coach’s head. (Gotta be Lemon-Lime, right?) In keeping with our format, we’re just going to focus on one bet. The spread. (Of course, if you’re kicking around some props and want a second opinion, we’ll give you our two cents.) Shield your eyes from all the flashbulbs, because it’s time for The Geek’s Super Bowl pick…

CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP RECAP

Here's the Geek’s pick to win the Puppy Bowl on Animal Planet

Quick summary on what is now old news. The Geek had a strong showing in the semi-final round, hitting both the Colts -7.5 over the Jets and the Vikings +3.5 over the Saints. The Jets had me worried there for a while, but Indy completely owned them in the second half. I thought Minnesota would beat the Saints outright, and they should’ve. When it went into overtime, a long Saints TD could’ve turned the tables, but Garrett Hartley’s kick split the uprights and the Vikes covered.

LAST WEEK: 2-0
PLAYOFFS: 5-5
REGULAR SEASON: 134-122
LOCKS OF THE WEEK: 9-5

SUPER BOWL XLIV

COLTS -4.5 over Saints

Wait, Jim Caldwell can actually talk?

There’s no shortage of storylines in this match up. You’ve got the hard-luck Saints in their first Super Bowl, trying to win for the city of New Orleans, which is still recovering from Hurricane Katrina. You’ve got Peyton Manning attempting to join the ranks of the elite quarterbacks of all time. You’ve got Archie Manning’s rooting dilemma: will he pull for his son or his former team? You’ve got the highly debated “imperfect season” angle. Should the Colts be playing for a 19-0 season? Would that put too much additional pressure on them? These all make for ways to keep people interested about a game that I feel won’t be very interesting, like most Colts games. The spread opened at 3.5, jumped to 5.5 and now, as of Thursday, has settled at 4.5. I expect it to jump back up to 5 or 5.5 if Freeney feels good when he tests out his ankle and when the rush of late bets hit over the weekend. Onto the team breakdowns…

The Colts are simply the better team, in my opinion. Clearly, that doesn’t guarantee victory. I still believe the ’07 Patriots were better than the Giants, but Belichick blew a critical 3^rd-quarter call by passing up a 46-yard field goal to go for it on 4^th and 10. Sorry, my Patriots homerism is showing. Let me tuck that back in. On offense, the Colts should pick up where the Vikings left off: moving the ball consistently on long, steady drives. The Saints will try to knock Manning around like they did to Favre. Peyton can’t be rattled. The Colts offensive line will give him enough time to get the ball out and it is well documented that Peyton does well against most blitz schemes. On defense, it sounds like Dwight Freeney is going to play mostly on third-down plays. The Saints have a better offense than any the Horseshoes have seen all year. It will definitely be a test for them to contain Drew Brees—especially with Freeney hobbling around. The Saints will get their share of points. Between the two teams, however, I believe the Colts have the better defensive unit.

Gambling Rule of Thumb: Wait to see what the giraffe does, then go the other way.

The Saints are just lucky to be here. Sure, they went 13-3. Sure, they kicked the crap out of Arizona. No, they didn’t beat Minnesota. The Vikings beat themselves. So the reason I’ve picked against the New Orleans in the past two rounds hasn’t changed. They’re not playing their best football right now. The running game that clicked early on in the season has been about as quiet as Jim Caldwell lately. It’s going to take three things for the Saints to win: 1) Drew Brees has to have a huge game. He’s certainly capable, but his gaudiest numbers came early in the season. 2) The Saints defense has to make a couple of big plays. They did have 26 interceptions and 8 defensive touchdowns…against the likes of Jake Delhomme and Josh Freeman. This Peyton Manning guy is just a liiiiiiiiitle bit better than those guys. And 3) Bush, Roby and the special teamers will have to make an impact. That’s the one area where I believe the Saints have an advantage. I don’t see all of those things happening for the New Orleans, though, which is too bad. My heart is rooting for the Saints. But my head is banking on the Colts.

The pick: Colts 34, Saints 21. For the Championship Round, I felt confident about the Vikings’ chances to cover because they were comfortable playing in a dome. Well, this week, both teams will be out of their element. (Forecast: High 75, Low 51, 30% precipitation.) I don’t have any fancy stats to back this up, but I get the sense the Colts are a better outdoor team. That, and Indy’s Super Bowl experience, will be the difference. The organization’s decision to flip off perfection will be Validated.

Here’s hoping we have a third consecutive exciting Super Bowl (that ends with the Colts up 5),

The Geek