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Rookie Review

By Si Korot, Staff Writer

As we enter week four of the NBA and fantasy basketball season, it‘s a good time to look at the rookies we drafted and analyze their progress. With the exception of the Clippers’ Blake Griffin, the #1 pick in the draft who went in the middle rounds, most of the rookies were taken in the back end of drafts. Some of those sleepers have been a big hit, while others have missed worse than a Shaq free throw. The question now is whether the skyrocketing rookies will keep up the pace. And will those who started out quietly get a chance to excel as the year continues?

After Jennings's 55-point game, he told fantasy owners that he was worth way more than a 12th-round pick.

Brandon ‘Dem Bucks: 20 year-old Brandon Jennings is bucking for Rookie ofthe Year honors in Milwaukee. Originally slated to share the PG position with veteran Luke Ridnour this season, Jennings saw a bigger role drop into his lap, as the Buck coaches are taking a rebuilding approach. With Michael Redd coming back slowly from knee surgery, this has been Jennings’ team. In seven games this season, he has missed scoring double-digit points only once, and shocked the entire NBA with a 55-point game on Saturday. He has averaged 25 ppg, 5 apg, 4.5 rpg, plus a steal. Those are the best PG stats in Dairyland since Oscar Robertson. Even upon Redd’s return, Jennings should keep up his numbers, as Redd will likely take the year to work out his physical kinks, and the team has very few other offensive threats. If you drafted him in a later round, good for you!

Tyreke or Treat: The Sacramento Kings are high on Tyreke Evans and why not? The Memphis dropout is taller than most PGs (6-6), but is also blessed with quickness and a good shooting eye. In the preseason and early in the regular season, he appeared to lose his shooting touch a bit and he committed a major PG no-no—dribbling the ball with his head down. In the season’s first few games, it was hit and miss, as he mixed good games with bad. But suddenly, as Kevin Martin went down with an injury, Evans was moved to SG, alongside PG Beno Udrih. He has not only picked up his scoring again, but is quickly learning the passing game from the veteran Udrih. Since Kev-Mart’s demise, Evans has gone off at a rate of 18-5.4-5, with 1.6 steals per game to boot. That beats the 10-3-4-1 with Martin in the lineup. When the veteran SG does return in another 6-8 weeks, he should bring down the rook’s stats a bit, but the experience Evan is getting should keep him at 15-4-6 when Martin returns.  EVANS IS FOR REAL. No Mirage here. He was probably picked up in later rounds of most drafts and owners are licking their chops.

What Have You Done for Me Blakely: Blake Griffin, the #1 pick in the NBA draft… a Clippers’ lineup centerpiece…uhhh…not quite yet. A stress fracture to the knee in the preseason postponed Griffin’s regular-season debut by six weeks. He was scheduled, along with Chris Kaman and Marcus Camby, to share two spots’ worth of playing time (32 mpg). With Kaman on a resurgent tear this season, Griffin, after getting back into playing shape, looks more likely to take time away from the fragile Camby, as well as subbing some for Kaman. 17-8-2 and a block were, at one time, in line for the rook you probably drafted by the seventh round. But 14-6-1 and a block in about 27 mpg is more likely, barring an (imminent) injury to Camby.

In Like Flynn: A dynamic Orangeman of Syracuse, PG Jonny Flynn was given the starting job in Minnesota over Ramon Sessions. The Timberwolves are off to a rough start, due to the loss of C Kevin Love and because Al Jefferson is still working his way back into shape from an ACL injury. With the team shorthanded and  due for another disappointing season, Coach Kurt Rambis took the same experience-on-the-job theory employed in Milwaukee with his touted rookie. Flynn, a quality work-in-progress, has good games mixed in with his average starts. He’s totaling 14 ppg, 3.75 rpg, 3.75 apg, but his 47% field goal percentage makes up for it. Flynn only get less than a steal a game, but is a good bench man, with keeper-league qualities. His numbers should continue to rise with experience this season.

Working Hard, But Hardly Working: Unlike some of his rookie counterparts, SG James Harden sits and watches, taking many mental notes, hoping to prove himself in the playing time he is given off the bench. He is considered to be a stud-of-the-future in a potentially stacked, very young OKC lineup including Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook and Jeff Green. With the Thunder’s choice to start Thabo Sefalosha at SG at first, Harden has been averaging only 6 ppg, 2.7 rpg, 3.2 apg, 0.7 spg and 0.5 bpg, with a low FG percentage of 38 %. He puts his time in at practice and is liked by his teammates and coaches. Based on his former All-Pac 10 status, it’s only a matter of time before Harden’s PT increases, so watch him closely this season and hold him in keeper leagues.

Curry Stew: Golden State PG Stephen Curry is a product of the lineup shuffling games that coach Don Nelson plays. In the original preseason scheme, Monta Ellis was to be the starting PG, with Curry getting in for about 28 mpg. On opening night, Curry was deemed the starting PG. Since then, his role has fluctuated as follows:

•    Started and played 30+ mpg
•    Started and played only three minutes
•    Came off the bench with fluctuating minutes

Yes, Curry, like all Warriors, is a victim of Nellie’s whims. Through it, he has managed 8 ppg, 2 rpg, 4.5 apg and 1 spg, shooting at a 48% clip. The former Davidson star is understandably and openly frustrated. The good news is that newspapers in Oakland have reported that within the next week, there will be a Warriors’ coaching change. Curry’s owners have to hope that the new staff will give Curry the run he deserves. Don’t drop him just yet, especially in keeper leagues.

The Geek is thinking of adding Terrence Williams so he can start an All-Williams back court. (He already owns Deron, Mo & Lou.)

Terrin’ It Up: New Jersey Nets F/G Terrence Williams is not going to make the All-Star team this season, but he is making the most of his PT. With the injuries mounting in Jersey, there are no qualms about ratcheting up his minutes. He’s been good for 9.5 ppg, 6.5 rpg and 2.2 apg, averaging about 30 mpg. He mixes some double-doubles in with some quiet nights, but if you watch him play, you might be tempted to add him to your bench and/or keeper team.

Their Time Will Come: It may not be this season, but San Antonio F DeJuan Blair and Memphis C Hasheem Thabeet will get their opportunities. It could happen this season, if injuries arise, or next season as contracts will expire in both cities this season for several veterans. They should be held for the future in keeper leagues and are worth keeping an eye on in preparation for next year’s drafts.

One newsflash to report:

At this writing, a trade between Golden State and Charlotte was approved. It features Stephen Jackson going to Charlotte for Raja Bell and Vladamir Radmanovic. Jackson should be a beast in Charlotte, as they have no true scoring threat. And his assists should stay the same because Coach Larry Brown tends to sit PG Raymond Felton for extended periods on his off-nights. Bell should fit nicely into the Warriors’ offense and is worth a flier if he’s available in your league. And Vlad-Rad may get an opportunity at the Golden State PF position—everyone else has.

Look for a more detailed breakdown of this trade in the Simon Says section of this week’s Geekly Update!